Newspapers are a lot like the auto industry

[de-pressed]

How did we get into this mess? Like the auto industry, we failed to respond in time to changing conditions in the market. Many newspapers remained complacent and ignored or denigrated emerging competitors on the web, rather than learning from them and adapting.

[Ink Stained Forever]

This discussion reminds me of a story that Guy Kawasaki, one of the pioneers at Apple, shared with the Class of 1995 at Palo Alto High School. His "Hindsight" speech has been forwarded to many, many people over the years for its wisdom and wit.

One hindsight that Guy shared is especially relevant to the newspaper industry's sluggish response to the Web and new media technologies. It may seem obvious, but Guy's advice is to "challenge the known and embrace the unknown."

One of the biggest mistakes you can make in life is to accept the known and resist the unknown. You should, in fact, do exactly the opposite: challenge the known and embrace the unknown.

Let me tell you a short story about ice. In the late 1800s there was a thriving ice industry in the Northeast. Companies would cut blocks of ice from frozen lakes and ponds and sell them around the world. The largest single shipment was 200 tons that was shipped to India. 100 tons got there unmelted, but this was enough to make a profit.

These ice harvesters, however, were put out of business by companies that invented mechanical ice makers. It was no longer necessary to cut and ship ice because companies could make it in any city during any season.

These ice makers, however, were put out of business by refrigerator companies. If it was convenient to make ice at a manufacturing plant, imagine how much better it was to make ice and create cold storage in everyone's home.

You would think that the ice harvesters would see the advantages of ice making and adopt this technology. However, all they could think about was the known: better saws, better storage, better transportation.

Then you would think that the ice makers would see the advantages of refrigerators and adopt this technology. The truth is that the ice harvesters couldn't embrace the unknown and jump their curve to the next curve.

Challenge the known and embrace the unknown, or you'll be like the ice harvester and the ice makers.

[de-pressed]

Great points in that speech. Unfortunately for newspapers including mine, what's "hindsight" now was called "advice" five years ago. Like the auto industry, they can't say they weren't informed. They just chose to bury their heads in the sand.